A STUDY ON POTENTIAL PERMAFROST DISTRIBUTION IN THE CORDEVOLE BASIN USING THE ALPINE 3D MODEL
One of the most serious consequences of the climatic changes underway, with a major temperature increase occurring starting from the 1980s, was degradation of permafrost in the high mountains, resulting in slope instability. All the climate models drawn up on a global scale suggest that this trend is also destined to continue in the XXI century, and for this reason studies on the current permafrost presence and its future distribution are of fundamental importance also to get a better knowledge of hydrogeological hazards in high mountain areas. This work illustrates the implementation of the Alpine 3D model, developed by the Swiss institute for snow and avalanche study, for the detection of potential permafrost areas in the Cordevole stream basin on a surface of 1,650 km2. The simulation results have shown that, in the current climatic phase (integration of 15-year data from 1989 to 2004) the total potential (probable and possible) permafrost surface in the area examined amounts to 32.2 km2 and that, based on the weather conditions of summer 2003, which was particularly hot, and assuming that these conditions continue, within 8 years the permafrost surface would be reduced to 1.68 km2.